Bharat Forecast System: India launches world's most precise weather model to improve predictions

NEW DELHI: In a major boost to India's weather prediction capabilities, the government on Monday unveiled the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) — the world’s highest-resolution weather model, operating on a 6-kilometre grid. Developed by researchers including Parthasarathy Mukhopadhyay, the model aims to deliver more granular and accurate forecasts, especially for small-scale weather patterns."This significant milestone represents a major leap in India's self-reliance in meteorological sciences, enabling more accurate and granular weather forecasts up to panchayat level for disaster risk reduction, agriculture, water resource management and public safety," a senior official from the Earth Sciences Ministry said.The BFS was made possible through the installation of Arka, a new supercomputer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) campus last year. Arka boasts a computational capacity of 11.77 petaflops and a storage capacity of 33 petabytes."The previous supercomputer 'Pratyush' used to take up to 10 hours to run the forecasting model. Arka performs the same data-crunching within four hours," Mukhopadhyay told news agency PTI.Union Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh dedicated the Bharat Forecasting System to the nation at a function in New Delhi.According to M. Ravichandran, the BFS will leverage a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars from across India to generate highly localised forecasts. “The BFS provides insight into weather events likely to take place in a grid of 6 km by 6 km against the earlier models that gave predictions for a 12 km grid,” he explained. The number of Doppler radars is expected to rise to 100, which would allow the weather office to issue nowcasts — short-term forecasts for the next two hours — for the entire country.The system offers high-resolution forecasts for the tropical region between 30 degrees South and 30 degrees North latitudes, which includes the Indian mainland spanning from 8.4 degrees to 37.6 degrees North. In comparison, Ravichandran pointed out that the global forecast models run by the European, British, and US weather offices operate at resolutions ranging from 9 km to 14 km.The BFS arrives at a critical time when weather anomalies are increasingly influencing India’s economy, particularly in the form of sticky food inflation. The government, in its latest Economic Survey, noted that frequent extreme weather events over the past two years have played a significant role in driving up food prices.Data from the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) cited in the report highlighted that the total crop area damaged in 2024 due to extreme weather was higher than in previous years. India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, according to the Economic Times, revealed a notable increase in the frequency of such events. Between 2022 and 2024, heatwaves were recorded on 18 per cent of days, a sharp rise from 5 per cent during 2020 and 2021.The Economic Survey recommended developing climate-resilient crops, improving data systems, and reducing both crop damage and post-harvest losses to achieve long-term price stability. Supporting these concerns, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monthly bulletin flagged the impact of weather anomalies on vegetable prices, stating that temperature anomalies have increased, prompting the need for temperature-resistant crop varieties.Despite these concerns, the bulletin noted that the inflation outlook has improved, with food inflation declining more than expected. However, weather-related and global risks continue to pose challenges.